Super Swing Districts
You can help win midterm elections from the bottom up, by supporting down-ballot Democratic candidates in Super Swing Districts.
A swing district is a legislative district either party could win.
What’s a Super Swing District?
- A state house (or state senate) swing district that overlaps
- a US House swing district or another state senate (or state house) swing district
- in a swing state
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How do Super Swing Districts matter?
In Super Swing Districts each voter casts multiple votes in different swing elections on the same ballot.
For example: PA house district 142 overlaps PA Senate district 6 and US
House district PA-01, which are 3 Republican-held swing districts. So each voter
there can cast 3 votes for Democrats to replace Republicans in the
down-ballot elections:
- Mark Moffa in PA-H-142
- Ann Marie Mitchell in PA-H-06
- Ashlez Ehasz in PA-01
In solid districts for either party additional votes won’t affect the down-ballot seats.
Why do Super Swing Districts matter?
In elections for the current PA State Senate, Democrats got more votes than Republicans, but only have 21 of 50 seats, because it isn’t enough to get more votes; the geographic distribution of votes matters.
Increasing Democratic turnout in Super Swing Districts increases the chances of flipping the PA State House and PA State Senate, holding the US House, and gaining seats in the US Senate.
These down-ballot candidates will help the top of the ticket through the reverse coattails effect.
- Coattails
- High-profile top-of-ticket candidates motivate people to the polls, who also vote for their party down-ballot.
- Reverse Coattails
- Down-ballot candidates bringing friends and neighbors to the polls win additional votes for the top of the ticket. This effect is typically between 1% and 2%, more than the difference in crucial elections.
While in each election year few candidates win seats held by the other party, these 22 super swing district candidates have a good chance to win if they get additional support.
(Candidates with the best chance to win not included since they will win without more help)
These 22 Super Swing District, Diverse, Down-ballot Candidates for 2022 are Democrats, and:
- pro-choice,
- pro-worker,
- pro-environment,
- pro-LGBTQ equality
- pro-common sense gun policies,
- pro-democracy, fair elections, and responsive government, and they are
- in states with crucial US Senate elections and other important statewide elections
These candidates also represent a diverse range of identities. Some
demographic information about this slate:
Gender
1 non-binary person, 18 women, 3 men
Ethnicity
1 Native American, 1 Asian-American, 2 Black, 3 Latina, 15 white candidates
Careers
1 local union president, 2 army officers, 2 lawyers, 1 nurse, 1 doctor, 1
scientist, 1 STEM professional, 1 journalist, 1 policy researcher, 3
teachers, 1 principal, 1 small business owner, 3 local elected officials, 1
district director for state representative, 1 union organizer, and 1 youth
activist
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Meet the candidates
Journalist Mark Moffa
emphasizes protecting women’s healthcare, strengthening public education,
top-notch child care, expanding workers’ rights to organize, defending voting
rights and protecting democracy against election lies and Republican scams.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +5, to Biden +2
- State Senate PA-S-06
- US House PA-01 Ashley Ehasz, pro-choice
combat veteran vs anti-abortion Republican incumbent in district Biden won
by 5.
Lawyer
Ann Marie Mitchell
is consistently coordinating door-to-door canvassing with Democratic candidates for the overlapping Republican-held state house seats. Ann Marie’s father was born in Ukraine; the area has a large Ukrainian-American population.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting -3, to Biden -0.2, Shapiro +2
R State Rep. Frank Farry (PA-H-142) voted against raising minimum wage and against making more workers eligible for overtime pay, but has significant union support.
- PA House PA-H-18,
PA-H-142,
PA-H-144
Mark Pinsley
has saved Lehigh County more than $3 million by effectively applying his business experience to his work as elected County Controller, after defeating the Republican incumbent in 2019. In 2018 Mark almost defeated the long-time Republican state senator. Redistricting made the seat more Republican; then the incumbent lost the primary to an extremist financed by a libertarian billionaire aiming to defund public schools.
This is the tipping point seat for PA Senate.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting -14, , to Biden -7, Wolf +6
Jarrett Coleman, a pilot, is largely
funded by the tax-avoiding, union busting, richest man in Pennsylvania; his
second most prominent supporter: one of the fake Pennsylvania electors who
attempted to subvert fair elections. Coleman, a school board member opposes
public health measures (masks) and favors greater access to AR-15s.
- US House PA-01, PA-07Susan Wild, toss-up
- PA House PA-H-143
Scientist
Gwen Stoltz
is running a strong campaign door-to-door emphasizing
that “our basic human rights are on the ballot from reproductive rights to
clean drinking water.” Her campaign prioritizes raising the minimum wage,
workers rights; women’s reproductive rights; common sense gun safety;
responsiveness to the changing needs of local farms; infrastructure funding
for local roads and bridges, improving the electric grid, increasing
availability of public EV charging, and removing PFAS from contaminated
water. Endorsed by 3.14 Action, the PAC to elect scientists.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting -9, to Biden -3, Wolf +7
Republican 1st term incumbent Shelby Labs voted to criminalize abortion, claims to be environmentalist but has a failing (42%) pro-environment voting record.
- US House PA-01
- PA Senate PA-S-16
Melissa Cerrato
district director for Dem. State Rep. Liz Hanbidge, a
great candidate, is running a great campaign against an entrenched
Republican incumbent, Todd Stephens, standing up to his threat to sue her
if she didn’t stop talking about his record on abortion.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +5, to Biden +25
Stephens has won in a Democratic
district by presenting as a moderate. Planned Parenthood previously
endorsed Stephens, but endorsed Melissa this year: “We have been
disappointed by Todd Stephens’ tenure in the legislature, and we are
further disappointed by his decision to sue his opponent for speaking the
truth.” In 2020 Stephens voted against raising the minimum wage and against
making more workers eligible for overtime pay, but has significant union
support.
- US House PA-01
Fox Chapel Borough Councilor
Mandy Steele
founded a non-profit conservation organization. She emphasizes climate change, prioritizing renewable energy, clean economy jobs, investments in public transportation and modern infrastructure, and banning fracking.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +6, to Biden +4
Businessman Ted Tomson
- US House PA-17; toss-up. Held by Democrat, Navy veteran, voting rights lawyer Chris Diluzio.
- PA Senate PA-S-38 Held by Democrat Lindsey Williams; narrowly elected in 2018.
Stroud Township Supervisor
Jennifer Shukaitis
will focus on protecting choice and the environment, expanding worker and voter rights, and a more responsive legislature.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +6, to Biden -0.47; Shapiro +6
PA State Rep.Rosemary Brown (PAH-189) consistently anti-abortion, anti-worker, anti-environment voting record; election denier: supported Texas lawsuit to overturn election.
- US House PA-08 D: Matt Cartwright, toss-up
- PA House PA-H-189 D: Tarah Probst, likely to flip this R open seat
- PA House PA-H-176 D: social worker Hope Christman vs R: election denying incumbent
Policy researcher
Anna Thomas
is challenging an extremist Republican in a seat
redistricted from Biden -10 to Biden +1.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting -10, to Biden +1
Election denier Joe Emrick
- US House PA-07 D: Susan Wild, toss-up
6th grade teacher and school board member
Taylor Kerby
is running for state senate to fight for opportunities for rural families.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting +11, to Biden -4, Kelly -0.4.
T.J. Shope
- US House AZ-02D incumbent Tom O’Halleran, rated Lean R, redistricting -10
- US House AZ-06 D incumbent retiring, rated Lean R, D: environmental lawyer, state senator Kirsten Engel
- AZ HouseAZ-H-16 D: Keith Seaman vs. extremist election denier
When her classroom ceiling collapsed,
teacher
Laura Terech shielded her
kindergartners; then she decided to run for AZ House
to address the poor funding for Arizona’s schools.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting -11, to Biden +1
Well-funded AZ budget director Matt Gress
- US House AZ-01 Toss-up, D: Jevin Hodge vs. R: corrupt, election denying incumbent
- AZ Senate AZ-S-04 Toss-up, D: former AZ Teacher of the Year Christine Marsh vs R: election denier Nancy Barto
- Maricopa County Attorney, D candidate Julie Gunnigle (49% in 2020)
Former school board president and teacher
Jeanne Casteen
came very close to winning the 2020 Maricopa County School Superintendent election (49%) running against election denier State Rep.
This is an open seat; merged 2 different districts.
Redistricting -2.5, to Biden -2; Kelly +0.6
election denier, AZ State Representative Steve Kaiser
- US House AZ-01
- AZ House AZ-H-02
- Maricopa County Attorney
Retired middle school principal
Cindy Hans
is running an underfunded campaign against an election denier in a district Biden carried.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting -1, to Biden +3
Republican incumbent J. D. Mesnard
- AZ House AZ-H-13
D: Jennifer Pawlik vs. R: election denier
- US House AZ-04
D: Greg Stanton
- Maricopa County Attorney
Youth activist
Lorena Austin
will be the first out, gender non-conforming Latina
elected to a US legislature.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting, to Biden +6
Extremist Mary Ann Mendoza, so
anti-Semitic as to be removed as speaker from the 2020 Republican National
Convention.
- US House AZ-04
- AZ Senate AZ-S-09 Nurse Eva Burch; an excellent candidate vs. an ultra-right-winger.
- Maricopa County Attorney
West Point graduate, Army Lt. Col. (retired)
Dana Allmond
resigned from Sinema’s veterans’ advisory group
because of the senator’s lack of support for Biden’s agenda. Endorsed by
Care in Action (an advocacy group for domestic workers which supports candidates of color).
This is the tipping point seat for the Arizona House.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +4, to Biden -4
Election denier Cory McGarr
- US House AZ-06 D-held seat, rated Lean R, D: environmental lawyer, state senator Kirsten Engel
- AZ Senate AZ-S-17 D: pastor Mike Nickerson vs. extreme election denier.
Pediatric nurse and researcher
Rachel Baker
describes her campaign as “Endorsed by Pro-Women,
Pro-Science, Pro-Choice, Pro-Workers, & Pro-Ohio Organizations,”
including the Safe Communities Coalition, the pro-vaccine political
advocacy organization. Rachel conducted research to increase vaccine
uptake. Endorsed by 3.14 Action
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +10, to Biden +15
Extremist Republican Jenn Giroux
- US House OH-01 , toss-up. D: Cincinnati City Council Greg Landsman
Child psychiatrist
Dr. Patricia Goetz
will fight for girl and trans athletes’ safety and
privacy against unjustified Republicans attacks. She urges raising the
minimum wage; creating green, well-paying jobs; restoring a woman’s right
to choose, and common sense gun safety laws.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting +16, to Biden +3
Well-financed Republican incumbent Kristina Daley Roegner
who wrote the Ohio abortion ban.
- US House OH-13: toss-up D open seat, Dem. Emilia Sykes
- OH House OH-H-31
- OH House OH-H-32
President of Local 4319 CWA (Communications Workers of America)
Erika White
is running a strong campaign against a well-funded,
right-wing Republican incumbent Derek Merrin in a significantly changed
district. Endorsed by The Collective (PAC to increase Black political representation).
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting +15, to Biden +2;
from 4% to 14% African American.
Well funded Republican incumbent Derek Merrin
- US House OH-09 Marcy Kaptur vs. Jan.6er;
Redistricted -22, to Biden -3
Union organizer
Eunic Ortiz
led a team that passed the 2020 ballot initiative raising the minimum wage to $15. She will be the second Hispanic elected official in Pinellas County and Florida’s first openly lesbian state senator.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +1, to Biden -5
Florida state Representative, extremist Republican Nick DiCeglie
-
US House FL-13 Charlie Crist’s seat;
redistricting -11 to Biden -7; Dem: Eric Lynn, former Senior Advisor to
the Secretary of Defense vs someone who got Lauern Boebert to campaign for
her. SuperPAC Progress Pinellas spending $6.8M to support Lynn. Likely
R.
-
FL House FL-H-061: D: veteran Janet
Varnell Warwick, FL Consumer Protection Attorney (of the year, 2019)
vs. R: extreme anti-environment incumbent. Redistricting -3 to Biden -5.
- 6th Judicial Circuit State’s Attorney (Pinellas and Pasco counties) Democratic candidate: public defender Allison Miller.
Raquel Pacheco
endorsed by VoteVets, is the “Latinas for Choice”
candidate against the “Latinas for Trump” incumbent Ileana Garcia, narrowly
elected.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Republican incumbent Ileana Garcia
- US House FL-27 Annette Taddeo, Redistricting -3 to Biden -0.3, against 1st term Republican. Likely R.
- FL House FL-H-114 Dem. Adam Benna vs. first term R, Redistricting +1 to Biden +0.3.
Attorney
Shea Backus
the first female enrolled tribal member to serve in
the Nevada State Legislature, narrowly won in 2018, and narrowly lost in
2020; is running against an extremist election denier this year.
This is a Republican-held open seat.
Redistricting +3, to Biden +3
Extreme election denier Jacob Deaville
- US House NV-03Toss-up, D: Susie Lee vs. R:
extremist election denier.
Former town councilwoman and data-driven STEM professional
Christine Kelly
emphasizes commitment to the environment diversity, equity, and
inclusion. Unusually for a state legislative campaign, her website is
accessible in English, Spanish, French, and Chinese.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting -4, to Biden -3
Anti-abortion R incumbent Erin Paré brought
Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) to campaign for her.
- US House NC-13 Toss-up. Among the best opportunities to flip a Republican-held US House seat in the country: Dem. State Senator Wiley Nickel vs. extremist Republican Bo Hines.
- NC Senate NC-S-17 Swing seat Dem. incumbent Sydney Batch.
U.S. Army Col. (retired)
Marcia Morgan
whose service included working at the Pentagon for the Army Chief of
Staff, identifies the major issues as Environment, Education, Economy, and
Equality. Endorsed by 3.14 Action, VoteVets, LGBTQ Victory Fund.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Redistricting -2, to Biden 0.2
Incumbent Conservative RepublicanMichael Lee
- NC House NC-H-020 Amy Block DeLoach challenging Republican incumbent
-
US House NC-07 Native American (Lumbee) Democrat
Charles Graham is running an underfunded, long-shot challenge to a
Republican incumbent in an area that shifted sharply towards Republicans,
who have made extensive efforts on the ground.
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Redistricting information sourced from Dave’s Redistricting.