Super Swing Districts 2024

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The SuperSwingDistrict Strategy: Quick Overview

The geographic distribution of votes matters Because of the Electoral College, US Senate, and gerrymandering votes in some places matter more than others.

For example: Arizona, a swing state in both the Electoral College and US Senate has 2 tossup congressional districts, which overlap the tipping point seats for Democrats to tie and gain a majority in the AZ state senate,
and also overlap important seats for a Democratic majority in the AZ state house.
 In geographically overlapping swing districts in swing states – Super Swing Districts – each voter casts multiple votes in different swing elections up and down the ballot.

Coattails and Reverse Coattails

Traditional coattails
High profile candidates attract supporters to the polls, who then also vote for the party’s downballot candidates.
Reverse coattails
Downballot candidates bring friends, neighbors, and folks they meet campaigning door-to-door to the polls, who then vote for the party’s other candidates.

For example: Native American leader Shelly Fyant, running for the state house in a Republican-held Montana district with many Native Americans will bring out some voters who otherwise might not have voted, providing reverse coattails for Jon Tester for US Senate and Monica Tranel for US House and other Democrats on the ballot.

Money matters more down ballot

There is a big difference in campaign financial resources across the ballot.

Most expensive Pennsylvania Elections, 2022, Total D+R spending, approximately:
US Senate $400 million
US House $40 million
State Senate $4 million
State House $2 million

SuperSwingDistrict Candidates

This slate features a diverse set of 18 super candidates for State Senate and State House of Representatives (State Assembly in NV and WI).

Diversity: 1 non-binary candidate, 11 women, 1 gay man, 4 straight men; 2 Native American, 2 African American, + Latinx, Chicano, Asian American, & Arab American candidates.

5 young candidates 28-35; 4 candidates 36-44. 2 candidates are incumbents (Lorena Austin & Shea Backus); 14 running against R incumbents; Shelly Fyant & Christian Phelps running in R open seats.

These Democrats are:

6 Super Pennsylvania candidates

6 Super Southwest Candidates

6 Super Swing State Candidates

Super Pennsylvania Candidates

Pennsylvania has:

These 6 candidates are running against Republican incumbents. While incumbents almost always win, these are excellent challengers running energetic campaigns in districts John Fetterman carried in 2022.

State Senate

PAS-49 (Erie County) #
Former TV news cameraman, union broadcaster, and Erie County Democratic Party Chair; college professor Jim Wertz emphasizes “defending democracy, protecting abortion, respecting workers, and funding education.” Endorsed by 24 unions.
  1. PAH-003 Democrat Ryan Bizzarro running for re-election
PAS-37 (North Hills and South Hills, Allegheny County; Pittsburgh suburbs) #
School librarian, basketball coach, and former local elected official Nicole Ruscitto emphasizes protecting reproductive rights, supporting public education, and uplifting families, including paid sick and family leave, affordable childcare, and universal preschool programs.
  1. State House: PAH-44 Hadley Haas (also on this slate)
  2. US House: PA-17 first term Democrat Chris Deluzio running for reelection.

If Jim and Nicole win (and, Patty Kim wins PAS-15 as expected) Democrats will tie the state senate.

State House

PAH-44 (Western Allegheny County) #
Moms Demand Action activist Hadley Haas emphasizes protecting our kids with common sense gun laws, protecting our air and water, investing in public education, and economic development.
  1. US House: PA-17 first term Democrat Chris Deluzio running for reelection
  2. State Senate: PAS-37 Nicole Ruscitto (also on this slate)
PAH-88 (Cumberland County) #
Social worker and local elected official Sara Agerton emphasizes public education, infrastructure funding, and making health care more affordable. Endorsements include Working Families Party.
  1. US House: PA-10 Janelle Stelson, well-known former local news anchor and former Republican, is challenging far-right congressman Scott Perry.
  2. State Legislature: Half of PAH-88 overlaps PAS-31, where the Democratic candidate, carpenter Mark Temons, emphasizes “building a PA for working families.” PAS-31 was 2022 Shapiro +3, Fetterman -9; 2020 Biden -13.
PAH-142 (Bucks County) #
Diagnosed with Cystic Fibrosis (CF) at birth, Middletown Township Supervisor Anna Payne, 37, is a prominent CF Patient Advocate and serves on the Pennsylvania Rare Disease Advisory Council. Anna emphasizes affordable access to healthcare, pprotecting reproductive rights, and “the right to collectively bargain and the union way of life.” Groups focused on electing young Democrats – Run for Something & The Next 50 – have endorsed Anna.
  1. US House: PA-01 Combat veteran Ashley Ehasz is challenging the Republican incumbent in a seat Biden carried.
PAH-137 (Northampton County) #
Policy analyst Anna Thomas, 28, is running against a right-wing Republican for a second time, having gotten 49% of the vote in 2022. Groups focused on electing young Democrats – Run for Something, The Next 50, and Leaders We Deserve (cofounded by David Hogg) have endorsed Anna.

Other notable endorsements:

  1. US House: PA-07 Democrat Susan Wild is running for re-election; won in 2022 despite Republicans bombarding her with $10 million in negative ads.

Super Southwest Candidates

Support super candidates in key southwest districts to boost Democratic votes to:

Arizona Senate

AZS-02 (North Phoenix) #
State Representative Judy Schwiebert is campaigning energetically against an appointed incumbent close to Ginni and Clarence Thomas in “the purple-ist district, in the purple-ist county, in the purple-ist state in the country.”
  1. US House: AZ-1: Emergency Room Physician and State Representative Amish Shah is challenging a corrupt Republican in a seat Biden carried.
  2. State House: AZH-02: Teacher and School Board member Stephanie Simacek is running for Judy’s old state house seat, emphasizing public education, the environment, housing, and reproductive freedom.
  3. County Board of Supervisors: Maricopa District 3: Retired firefighter and former Phoenix city council member Daniel Valenzuela can flip this increasingly Democratic-leaning seat.
  4. 5 Maricopa Countywide seats including County Recorder, who will supervise elections in Maricopa County: Tim Stringham
  5. statewide elections
AZS-17 (Tucson area) #
Retired CEO, math Ph.D., conservationist, marathon runner, and dog lover, John McLean is running in a tipping point seat for a Democratic majority in the state senate; the best opportunity to flip 3 overlapping Republican-held legislative seats.
  1. US House: AZ-6 Environmental attorney and former state legislator Kirsten Engel, rematch with first term Republican who narrowly won in 2022.
  2. State House: AZH-17 Small business owner focused on building affordable housing in Tucson and early childhood education advocate Kevin Volk is running against a Republican who proposed that Arizona’s 2024 electoral votes should be awarded to Trump before any votes were cast.
  3. statewide elections

If Judy and John win, Democrats will gain a majority in the AZ Senate (assuming no net change for other senate seats).

Arizona House

Arizona elects 2 state representatives and 1 state senator from each of 30 Legislative Districts. Democrats are using a “single-shot strategy” running only 1 candidate for state house in the LDs mentioned above (2 and 17); Democrats have 2 candidates in the 3 LDs below.

AZH-04 (Phoenix-Paradise Valley-Scottsdale) #
School Board president Karen Gresham defeated Matt Gress in a 2020 school board election; she can defeat Gress, now a Republican State Representative, again. Gress introduced 5 bills to establish fetal personhood and is trying to confuse voters about his stance. That may not work in this district, the most highly educated district in the state.
  1. US House: AZ-1: Emergency Room Physician and State Representative Amish Shah is challenging a corrupt Republican in a seat Biden carried.
  2. State legislature: State Senator Christine Marsh is running for re-election Former State Representative Kelli Butler is running for the other state house seat.
  3. County Board of Supervisors: Maricopa District 3: Retired firefighter and former Phoenix city council member Daniel Valenzuela can flip this increasingly Democratic-leaning seat.
  4. Maricopa countywide and statewide votes

If these 3 candidates win (assuming no net change for other senate seats), Democrats will gain a majority in the Arizona State House.

AZH-09 (Mesa) #
The first non-binary Latinx state legislator, Lorena Austin, 35, is running for re-election against an opponent removed as a speaker from the 2020 Republican Convention for extreme anti-Semitism.
  1. State Senate: State Senator Eva Burch is running for re-election.
  2. State House: State Representative Seth Blattman is running for re-election.
  3. Maricopa countywide elections
  4. statewide elections
AZH-13 (Chandler) #
A community planner at Chicanos por la Causa, Nicholas Gonzales, 33, brings his affordable housing expertise to a campaign against a far right Republican in a swing district.
  1. State House: Brandy Reese for the other state house seat
  2. State Senate: Sharon Lee Winters
  3. Maricopa District 1: Firefighter and Tempe City Council member Joel Navarro can flip this increasingly Democratic-leaning seat.

We will achieve a Democratic majority on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors if both Navarro and Valenzuela win.

Nevada Assembly

NVA-37 (Northwest Las Vegas) #
Attorney Shea Backus, the first Native American woman elected to the Nevada Legislature, was a primary sponsor of a resolution to protect reproductive freedom and led a historic increase in funding for Nevada public schools. Republican megadonor Miriam Adelson is funding Backus’s opponent in the only Nevada district that flipped in each of the last 3 elections.
  1. State senate: NVS-06 Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro has won twice very narrowly
  2. US House: NV-3 Democrat Susie Lee is running for re-election, having won in 2022 despite Republicans bombarding her with $12 million in negative ads.

Also on the ballot:

  1. Las Vegas mayor: Shelley Berkley
  2. Clark County Commission District C: Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod
  3. Las Vegas Township Justice Court Department 2: Joseph Sciscento
  4. Clark County School District Board of Trustees District E: Kamilah Bywaters

Super Swing State Candidates

Michigan and Wisconsin are swing states in the Electoral College and US Senate.

Montana is a swing state for the US Senate.

North Carolina is a swing state for the Electoral College.

These states each have competitive US House elections, including Republican-held MI-10, MT-1, WI-1, WI-3, and Democratic held NC-01.

Michigan

MIH-55 (Oakland County) #

Former Army intelligence and Foreign Service officer Trevis Harrold, 31, is challenging a Republican state representative in a district Biden carried.

The Collective PAC (which endorses Black candidates) Run for Something, and VoteVets are among the organization that have endorsed Trevis, one of the youngest swing district candidates.

Trevis’ top issue is “Championing Environmental Stewardship: Investing in green infrastructure …the preservation of our Great Lakes and local waterways….addressing the challenge of climate change at the state level.” He also emphasizes investing in education, protecting women’s rights and affordable healthcare, growing economic opportunity, passing common sense gun safety legislation, and providing for veterans.

  1. US House: MI-10: Democrat Carl Marlinga rematch with first term Republican who won one of the narrowest Republican victories in 2022.
  2. MI Court of Appeals District 2: Democrat Latoya Willis
  3. US Senate: Elissa Slotkin
  4. Electors for Harris-Walz
  5. Michigan Supreme Court: Kyra Harris Bolden, 36, and Kimberly Thomas
MIH-57 (Macomb and Oakland Counties) #

Attorney Aisha Farooqi, endorsed by AMPAC, the American Arab and Muslim Political Action Committee, is working to get out the vote for Harris-Walz and Michigan Democrats in a district with one of the largest Arab and Muslim populations. Aisha is a member of the Muslim-Jewish Advisory Council of Detroit.

Aisha’s priorities include education, healthcare, reproductive freedom, the environment, public safety, democracy, childcare, support for youth, and affordable housing.

Reproductive freedom, labor, LGBTQ+ equality, and gun safety organizations, Emily’s List, Run for Something, the Alliance of South Asian-American Labor, Bangladeshi-American Democratic Caucus, and Emgage (Muslim civic action) have endorsed Aisha.

Increasing American Arab and Muslim Democratic turnout here will not only flip this Republican-held state house seat, but provide reverse coattails, boosting other Democrats on the ticket.

  1. US House: MI-10: Democrat Carl Marlinga rematch with first term Republican who won one of the narrowest Republican victories in 2022.
  2. MI Court of Appeals District 2: Democrat Latoya Willis
  3. US Senate: Elissa Slotkin
  4. Electors for Harris-Walz
  5. Michigan Supreme Court: Kyra Harris Bolden, 36, and Kimberly Thomas

Montana

MTH-91 (Flathead Reservation area) #

Former Chairwoman of the Confederated Salish & Kootenai Tribes (CSKT), Shelly Fyant is running in the Montana House district with the most Native Americans represented by a Republican.

Endorsed by Advance Native Political Leadership, Western Native Voice Action Fund, Montana AFL-CIO, Montana Federation of Public Employees, Montana Conservation Voters, and Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense, Shelly strongly supports reproductive freedom, public school funding, and protecting the environment for future generations.

Increasing Native American turnout here will not only flip this Republican-held state house seat, but provide reverse coattails, boosting other Democrats on the ticket including Jon Tester for US Senate.

  1. US House: MT-1 pro-consumer attorney and Olympic rower Monica Tranel running again against Ryan Zinke; a Republican so corrupt that he resigned amid scandal as Trump’s Secretary of the Interior. Tranel lost by 3 points in 2022. She raised more by the end of June 2024 than in all of the previous election cycle.
  2. State Senate: MTS-46: Jacinda Morigeau, 37, a Bitterroot Salish woman, enrolled CSKT citizen, is very likely to be elected to this seat vacated by Democrat Shannon O’Brien, who is running for Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Statewide ballot:

  1. Jon Tester for US Senate
  2. Montana Supreme Court: Jerry Lynch & Katherine Bidegaray
  3. Governor/Lt. Gov: Ryan Busse and Raph Graybill
  4. CI 128 Right to Abortion Initiative: Yes!
  5. Superintendent of Public Instruction: Shannon O’Brien
  6. Attorney General: Ben Alke
  7. Sec. of State: Jesse James Mullen
  8. State Auditor: John Repke

North Carolina

NCH-25 (Nash County, North Carolina Black Belt) #
Non-profit leader, advocate for youth, service, and the common good, Dr. Lorenza Wilkins is working to reverse the low voter turnout in North Carolina’s Black Belt that cost Democrats dearly in 2022, and defeat a first-term Republican in a swing district.

Increasing African American turnout here will defeat this Republican incumbent and provide reverse coattails, boosting other Democrats on the ticket in overlapping districts and statewide.

If Dr. Wilkins wins (with no net change in other districts) Democrats will be able to block Republican efforts to override vetoes by Democratic Governor Josh Stein.

After Republicans gained control of the NC Supreme Court in 2022 they gerrymandered congressional and state legislative districts extensively, which will limit the consequences of attention to the extremism of Mark Robinson and other statewide Republicans candidates.

  1. State Senate: NCS-11 James Mercer, Lt. Col. US Army Reserve (Ret)
  2. US House: NC-01 Don Davis is running for re-election against Republican gerrymandering

Voters in NCH-25 can cast ballots in 12 statewide swing elections:

  1. Presidential Electors for Harris-Walz
  2. Governor Josh Stein
  3. Lt. Governor Rachel Hunt
  4. Attorney General Jeff Jackson
  5. State Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs
  6. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
  7. Superintendent of Public Instruction Mo Green
  8. Auditor Jessica Holmes
  9. Treasurer Wesley Harris
  10. Labor Commissioner Braxton Winston
  11. Insurance commissioner Natasha Marcus
  12. Agriculture Commissioner Sarah Taber

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a swing state in the Electoral College and US Senate. Two of its congressional districts are rated as competitive.

WIA-43 (South Central Wisconsin) #

Local elected official, yoga teacher, editor, and book lover Brienne Brown is challenging a Republican incumbent in a district including University of Wisconsin at Whitewater, made more Democratic in redistricting.

Brienne’s priorities include quality public education, reproductive freedom, investing in public safety, and fair elections.

Increasing turnout by young voters here will defeat this Republican incumbent and provide reverse coattails, boosting Democratic votes for US House, US Senate, and President.

  1. US House WI-1: Former US representative and WI Assembly leader Peter Barca is challenging the Republican incumbent in southeast Wisconsin, a competitive Republican-leaning seat.
WIA-93 (Eau Claire area) #

LGBTQ+ journalist, activist, and Communications Director for the Wisconsin Public Education Network, Christian Phelps, 30, emphasizes the need for “pro-public leadership – pro-public education, pro-public health, pro-public lands, pro-public participation in democracy.”

Christian’s priorities: “Fund strong public schools, restore reproductive freedom, expand health-care as a Human Right, protect the environment, legalize cannabis, and broaden workers’ rights.”

One of the youngest swing district candidates, Christian has been endorsed by Run for Something, Bold Progressives, and the Working Families Party.

The district has more young people than most Assembly Districts; it includes the University of Wisconsin at Eau Claire.

  1. US House: WI-3: Democrat Rebecca Cooke is challenging a first-term Republican incumbent in a competitive, Republican-leaning seat.

With only half Wisconsin’s state senate seats up for election this year, a Democratic majority does not appear to be within reach. These Assembly districts have the most significant overlap with the most competitive US House districts and because of the large numbers of young voters, boosting turnout and overlap Wisconsin’s 2 most competitive US House seats.