Super Swing Districts

You can help win midterm elections from the bottom up, by supporting down-ballot Democratic candidates in Super Swing Districts.

A swing district is a legislative district either party could win.

What’s a Super Swing District?

  1. A state house (or state senate) swing district that overlaps
  2. a US House swing district or another state senate (or state house) swing district
  3. in a swing state

How do Super Swing Districts matter?

In Super Swing Districts each voter casts multiple votes in different swing elections on the same ballot.

For example: PA house district 142 overlaps PA Senate district 6 and US House district PA-01, which are 3 Republican-held swing districts. So each voter there can cast 3 votes for Democrats to replace Republicans in the down-ballot elections:

  1. Mark Moffa in PA-H-142
  2. Ann Marie Mitchell in PA-H-06
  3. Ashlez Ehasz in PA-01

In solid districts for either party additional votes won’t affect the down-ballot seats.

Why do Super Swing Districts matter?

In elections for the current PA State Senate, Democrats got more votes than Republicans, but only have 21 of 50 seats, because it isn’t enough to get more votes; the geographic distribution of votes matters.

Increasing Democratic turnout in Super Swing Districts increases the chances of flipping the PA State House and PA State Senate, holding the US House, and gaining seats in the US Senate.

These down-ballot candidates will help the top of the ticket through the reverse coattails effect.

High-profile top-of-ticket candidates motivate people to the polls, who also vote for their party down-ballot.
Reverse Coattails
Down-ballot candidates bringing friends and neighbors to the polls win additional votes for the top of the ticket. This effect is typically between 1% and 2%, more than the difference in crucial elections.

While in each election year few candidates win seats held by the other party, these 22 super swing district candidates have a good chance to win if they get additional support.

(Candidates with the best chance to win not included since they will win without more help)

These 22 Super Swing District, Diverse, Down-ballot Candidates for 2022 are Democrats, and:

  1. pro-choice,
  2. pro-worker,
  3. pro-environment,
  4. pro-LGBTQ equality
  5. pro-common sense gun policies,
  6. pro-democracy, fair elections, and responsive government, and they are
  7. in states with crucial US Senate elections and other important statewide elections

These candidates also represent a diverse range of identities. Some demographic information about this slate:


1 non-binary person, 18 women, 3 men


1 Native American, 1 Asian-American, 2 Black, 3 Latina, 15 white candidates


1 local union president, 2 army officers, 2 lawyers, 1 nurse, 1 doctor, 1 scientist, 1 STEM professional, 1 journalist, 1 policy researcher, 3 teachers, 1 principal, 1 small business owner, 3 local elected officials, 1 district director for state representative, 1 union organizer, and 1 youth activist

Meet the candidates

PA-H-142 #
Journalist Mark Moffa emphasizes protecting women’s healthcare, strengthening public education, top-notch child care, expanding workers’ rights to organize, defending voting rights and protecting democracy against election lies and Republican scams.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +5, to Biden +2
  1. State Senate PA-S-06
  2. US House PA-01 Ashley Ehasz, pro-choice combat veteran vs anti-abortion Republican incumbent in district Biden won by 5.
PA-S-06 #
Lawyer Ann Marie Mitchell is consistently coordinating door-to-door canvassing with Democratic candidates for the overlapping Republican-held state house seats. Ann Marie’s father was born in Ukraine; the area has a large Ukrainian-American population.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting -3, to Biden -0.2, Shapiro +2
R State Rep. Frank Farry (PA-H-142) voted against raising minimum wage and against making more workers eligible for overtime pay, but has significant union support.
  1. PA House PA-H-18, PA-H-142, PA-H-144
PA-S-16 #
Mark Pinsley has saved Lehigh County more than $3 million by effectively applying his business experience to his work as elected County Controller, after defeating the Republican incumbent in 2019. In 2018 Mark almost defeated the long-time Republican state senator. Redistricting made the seat more Republican; then the incumbent lost the primary to an extremist financed by a libertarian billionaire aiming to defund public schools.
This is the tipping point seat for PA Senate. This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting -14, , to Biden -7, Wolf +6
Jarrett Coleman, a pilot, is largely funded by the tax-avoiding, union busting, richest man in Pennsylvania; his second most prominent supporter: one of the fake Pennsylvania electors who attempted to subvert fair elections. Coleman, a school board member opposes public health measures (masks) and favors greater access to AR-15s.
  1. US House PA-01, PA-07Susan Wild, toss-up
  2. PA House PA-H-143
PA-H-143 #
Scientist Gwen Stoltz is running a strong campaign door-to-door emphasizing that “our basic human rights are on the ballot from reproductive rights to clean drinking water.” Her campaign prioritizes raising the minimum wage, workers rights; women’s reproductive rights; common sense gun safety; responsiveness to the changing needs of local farms; infrastructure funding for local roads and bridges, improving the electric grid, increasing availability of public EV charging, and removing PFAS from contaminated water. Endorsed by 3.14 Action, the PAC to elect scientists.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting -9, to Biden -3, Wolf +7
Republican 1st term incumbent Shelby Labs voted to criminalize abortion, claims to be environmentalist but has a failing (42%) pro-environment voting record.
  1. US House PA-01
  2. PA Senate PA-S-16
PA-H-151 #
Melissa Cerrato district director for Dem. State Rep. Liz Hanbidge, a great candidate, is running a great campaign against an entrenched Republican incumbent, Todd Stephens, standing up to his threat to sue her if she didn’t stop talking about his record on abortion.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +5, to Biden +25
Stephens has won in a Democratic district by presenting as a moderate. Planned Parenthood previously endorsed Stephens, but endorsed Melissa this year: “We have been disappointed by Todd Stephens’ tenure in the legislature, and we are further disappointed by his decision to sue his opponent for speaking the truth.” In 2020 Stephens voted against raising the minimum wage and against making more workers eligible for overtime pay, but has significant union support.
  1. US House PA-01
PA-H-033 #
Fox Chapel Borough Councilor Mandy Steele founded a non-profit conservation organization. She emphasizes climate change, prioritizing renewable energy, clean economy jobs, investments in public transportation and modern infrastructure, and banning fracking.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +6, to Biden +4
Businessman Ted Tomson
  1. US House PA-17; toss-up. Held by Democrat, Navy veteran, voting rights lawyer Chris Diluzio.
  2. PA Senate PA-S-38 Held by Democrat Lindsey Williams; narrowly elected in 2018.
PA-S-40 #
Stroud Township Supervisor Jennifer Shukaitis will focus on protecting choice and the environment, expanding worker and voter rights, and a more responsive legislature.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +6, to Biden -0.47; Shapiro +6
PA State Rep.Rosemary Brown (PAH-189) consistently anti-abortion, anti-worker, anti-environment voting record; election denier: supported Texas lawsuit to overturn election.
  1. US House PA-08 D: Matt Cartwright, toss-up
  2. PA House PA-H-189 D: Tarah Probst, likely to flip this R open seat
  3. PA House PA-H-176 D: social worker Hope Christman vs R: election denying incumbent
PA-H-137 #
Policy researcher Anna Thomas is challenging an extremist Republican in a seat redistricted from Biden -10 to Biden +1.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting -10, to Biden +1
Election denier Joe Emrick
  1. US House PA-07 D: Susan Wild, toss-up
AZ-S-16 #
6th grade teacher and school board member Taylor Kerby is running for state senate to fight for opportunities for rural families.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting +11, to Biden -4, Kelly -0.4.
T.J. Shope
  1. US House AZ-02D incumbent Tom O’Halleran, rated Lean R, redistricting -10
  2. US House AZ-06 D incumbent retiring, rated Lean R, D: environmental lawyer, state senator Kirsten Engel
  3. AZ HouseAZ-H-16 D: Keith Seaman vs. extremist election denier
AZ-H-04 #
When her classroom ceiling collapsed, teacher Laura Terech shielded her kindergartners; then she decided to run for AZ House to address the poor funding for Arizona’s schools.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting -11, to Biden +1
Well-funded AZ budget director Matt Gress
  1. US House AZ-01 Toss-up, D: Jevin Hodge vs. R: corrupt, election denying incumbent
  2. AZ Senate AZ-S-04 Toss-up, D: former AZ Teacher of the Year Christine Marsh vs R: election denier Nancy Barto
  3. Maricopa County Attorney, D candidate Julie Gunnigle (49% in 2020)
AZ-S-02 #
Former school board president and teacher Jeanne Casteen came very close to winning the 2020 Maricopa County School Superintendent election (49%) running against election denier State Rep.
This is an open seat; merged 2 different districts. Redistricting -2.5, to Biden -2; Kelly +0.6
election denier, AZ State Representative Steve Kaiser
  1. US House AZ-01
  2. AZ House AZ-H-02
  3. Maricopa County Attorney
AZ-S-13 #
Retired middle school principal Cindy Hans is running an underfunded campaign against an election denier in a district Biden carried.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting -1, to Biden +3
Republican incumbent J. D. Mesnard
  1. AZ House AZ-H-13 D: Jennifer Pawlik vs. R: election denier
  2. US House AZ-04 D: Greg Stanton
  3. Maricopa County Attorney
AZ-H-09 #
Youth activist Lorena Austin will be the first out, gender non-conforming Latina elected to a US legislature.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting, to Biden +6
Extremist Mary Ann Mendoza, so anti-Semitic as to be removed as speaker from the 2020 Republican National Convention.
  1. US House AZ-04
  2. AZ Senate AZ-S-09 Nurse Eva Burch; an excellent candidate vs. an ultra-right-winger.
  3. Maricopa County Attorney
AZ-H-17 #
West Point graduate, Army Lt. Col. (retired) Dana Allmond resigned from Sinema’s veterans’ advisory group because of the senator’s lack of support for Biden’s agenda. Endorsed by Care in Action (an advocacy group for domestic workers which supports candidates of color).
This is the tipping point seat for the Arizona House. This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +4, to Biden -4
Election denier Cory McGarr
  1. US House AZ-06 D-held seat, rated Lean R, D: environmental lawyer, state senator Kirsten Engel
  2. AZ Senate AZ-S-17 D: pastor Mike Nickerson vs. extreme election denier.
OH-H-27 #
Pediatric nurse and researcher Rachel Baker describes her campaign as “Endorsed by Pro-Women, Pro-Science, Pro-Choice, Pro-Workers, & Pro-Ohio Organizations,” including the Safe Communities Coalition, the pro-vaccine political advocacy organization. Rachel conducted research to increase vaccine uptake. Endorsed by 3.14 Action
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +10, to Biden +15
Extremist Republican Jenn Giroux
  1. US House OH-01 , toss-up. D: Cincinnati City Council Greg Landsman
OH-S-27 #
Child psychiatrist Dr. Patricia Goetz will fight for girl and trans athletes’ safety and privacy against unjustified Republicans attacks. She urges raising the minimum wage; creating green, well-paying jobs; restoring a woman’s right to choose, and common sense gun safety laws.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting +16, to Biden +3
Well-financed Republican incumbent Kristina Daley Roegner who wrote the Ohio abortion ban.
  1. US House OH-13: toss-up D open seat, Dem. Emilia Sykes
  2. OH House OH-H-31
  3. OH House OH-H-32
OH-H-42 #
President of Local 4319 CWA (Communications Workers of America) Erika White is running a strong campaign against a well-funded, right-wing Republican incumbent Derek Merrin in a significantly changed district. Endorsed by The Collective (PAC to increase Black political representation).
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting +15, to Biden +2; from 4% to 14% African American.
Well funded Republican incumbent Derek Merrin
  1. US House OH-09 Marcy Kaptur vs. Jan.6er; Redistricted -22, to Biden -3
FL-S-18 #
Union organizer Eunic Ortiz led a team that passed the 2020 ballot initiative raising the minimum wage to $15. She will be the second Hispanic elected official in Pinellas County and Florida’s first openly lesbian state senator.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +1, to Biden -5
Florida state Representative, extremist Republican Nick DiCeglie
  1. US House FL-13 Charlie Crist’s seat; redistricting -11 to Biden -7; Dem: Eric Lynn, former Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense vs someone who got Lauern Boebert to campaign for her. SuperPAC Progress Pinellas spending $6.8M to support Lynn. Likely R.
  2. FL House FL-H-061: D: veteran Janet Varnell Warwick, FL Consumer Protection Attorney (of the year, 2019) vs. R: extreme anti-environment incumbent. Redistricting -3 to Biden -5.
  3. 6th Judicial Circuit State’s Attorney (Pinellas and Pasco counties) Democratic candidate: public defender Allison Miller.
FL-S-36 #
Raquel Pacheco endorsed by VoteVets, is the “Latinas for Choice” candidate against the “Latinas for Trump” incumbent Ileana Garcia, narrowly elected.
This is against a Republican incumbent.
Republican incumbent Ileana Garcia
  1. US House FL-27 Annette Taddeo, Redistricting -3 to Biden -0.3, against 1st term Republican. Likely R.
  2. FL House FL-H-114 Dem. Adam Benna vs. first term R, Redistricting +1 to Biden +0.3.
NV-A-37 #
Attorney Shea Backus the first female enrolled tribal member to serve in the Nevada State Legislature, narrowly won in 2018, and narrowly lost in 2020; is running against an extremist election denier this year.
This is a Republican-held open seat. Redistricting +3, to Biden +3
Extreme election denier Jacob Deaville
  1. US House NV-03Toss-up, D: Susie Lee vs. R: extremist election denier.
NC-H-037 #
Former town councilwoman and data-driven STEM professional Christine Kelly emphasizes commitment to the environment diversity, equity, and inclusion. Unusually for a state legislative campaign, her website is accessible in English, Spanish, French, and Chinese.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting -4, to Biden -3
Anti-abortion R incumbent Erin Paré brought Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) to campaign for her.
  1. US House NC-13 Toss-up. Among the best opportunities to flip a Republican-held US House seat in the country: Dem. State Senator Wiley Nickel vs. extremist Republican Bo Hines.
  2. NC Senate NC-S-17 Swing seat Dem. incumbent Sydney Batch.
NC-S-07 #
U.S. Army Col. (retired) Marcia Morgan whose service included working at the Pentagon for the Army Chief of Staff, identifies the major issues as Environment, Education, Economy, and Equality. Endorsed by 3.14 Action, VoteVets, LGBTQ Victory Fund.
This is against a Republican incumbent. Redistricting -2, to Biden 0.2
Incumbent Conservative RepublicanMichael Lee
  1. NC House NC-H-020 Amy Block DeLoach challenging Republican incumbent
  2. US House NC-07 Native American (Lumbee) Democrat Charles Graham is running an underfunded, long-shot challenge to a Republican incumbent in an area that shifted sharply towards Republicans, who have made extensive efforts on the ground.

Redistricting information sourced from Dave’s Redistricting.